The Uganda shilling lost ground against the dollar for another straight week, trading at the 3,635/3,645 on Friday morning in comparison to the 3,555/3,565 opening level on Monday, according to Absa Bank Uganda weekly shilling update.

The currency pair has continued to trade in a wide range with an overall bias towards a weaker local unit, underpinned by heavy dollar demand from offshore players, coupled with pockets of demand from the local market players in the first half of the week. The local unit briefly touched 3655/3655 by mid-week, attracting selling interest from commodity exporters, drawing the price action in a marginal recovery that gradually pushed the currency pair into retracement.

Looking ahead, the shilling is still expected to trade within a wide range of 3,530–3,670 as markets continue to weigh underlying demand and supply dynamics. The Treasury Bill auction conducted this week on 19Nov2025 – printed at the same levels in comparison to the previous sale, at 14.903%, 13.750%, and 11.461% for the 364-day, 182-day, and 91-day, respectively. Bank of Uganda accepted UGX 313.940 billion in face value from the primary auction, an under-allocation in comparison to the UGX 355 billion on offer and UGX 375.87 billion accepted in the previous auction on 05Nov2025. This auction was oversubscribed with UGX 567.075 billion tendered by investors, the bulk of the acceptance in 364-Day tenor.

The money markets were liquid with UGX 945.99 billion in repo-maturities, UGX 548.14 billion in gross coupon payment for bonds maturing in Nov 2030, Nov 2035, and Nov 2040, and another UGX 271.34 billion in gross treasury bill maturities. Therefore, the Central Bank had to mop up the excess liquidity of UGX 1067.83 billion out of the money markets through a 7-day repo, and BOU Bills.. The interbank overnight and one-week interest rates averaged at 9.63% and 10.09%, respectively.

The Central Bank has a scheduled Treasury Bond auction next week on 26Nov2025 Wednesday, with UGX 1.400 trillion on offer in the 2-year, 5-year, 15-year, and 25-year tenors. The auction is expected to be well subscribed, given the excess liquidity with likely local and offshore interest.

The Kenya shilling has traded under pressure during the week, posting losses against the dollar, touching the lows of 129.90/130.10 from the 129.00-129.40 stable range that opened on Monday. The depreciation has been on the back of dollar buying interest from local corporates and offshore market players, replicating the situation faced with the Uganda shilling.

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) intervened in the spot market – selling dollars accordingly in the interbank and prompting a correction of the currency pair to 129.40/129.60 on Friday morning. Looking ahead, the Kenya shilling is expected to trade in a wider range driven by elevated trading activity on the selling and buying side of the currency pair.

The US dollar Index (DXY) marginally declined to trade around the 100 levels on Friday morning from the highs of 100.35 posted during the week, against a basket of six world currencies. The pullback is underpinned by the mixed delayed US jobs data that failed to provide clarity on interest rates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Thursday that the US economy created more jobs than expected in September, but a rise in the Unemployment Rate and downward adjustments to preceding months provide an uncertain picture for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as it weighs whether to lower interest rates next month to support the labor market.

The uncertainty in the US economy could weigh on the DXY index in the near term, as the prolonged US government funding shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including jobs and inflation reports. The market will now wait for more clues from the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) later today.

Globally, Stocks are poised for their worst week in seven months as concerns over lofty valuations and whether massive investments in artificial intelligence will pay off prompt investors to retreat from riskier assets. Adding to the cautious mood, cryptocurrencies dropped, with Bitcoin trading below $86,000. The MSCI All Country World Index has fallen almost 3% this week, putting it on track for its sharpest weekly drop since April 4, when President Donald Trump’s tariffs rattled markets. Investor sentiment presents concerns over valuations, coupled with a mixed employment report, dominated sentiment in the session, with some analysts viewing the pullback as corrective rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.

The pound sterling traded at 1.3080 against the dollar on Friday morning, remaining under selling pressure in global markets while the dollar continues to maintain a firm overall tone. On Thursday, the pound resisted a four-day losing streak, catching a thin technical bounce from the 1.3050 region. The stakes are high for UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves in the upcoming budget on November 26.

She needs to take steps to shore up the UK’s public finances after a year in which investors have, on more than one occasion, questioned Britain’s fiscal credibility.US Nonfarm Payrolls jobs data from September was released on Thursday, much later than usual, thanks to the US government’s latest funding shutdown. The upswing in job gains may be a leading sign to close the door on a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut on December 10, which would have required stronger signs of labor market deterioration.

Brent crude oil price declined for a third session to trade near $63 a barrel on Friday, despite the new set of US sanctions on Russia, scheduled to take effect today, on November 21, which are expected to restrict exports of Russian oil and provide some support for the commodity. However, US-Russia secret negotiations to end the war in Ukraine are watering down the expected impact of the sanctions on Russia. The plan, drafted by the US and Russia, includes proposals such as Ukraine ceding territory and the removal of sanctions, which could add more supply to the market.

The OPEC supply outlook, released last week, assessed that world oil supply will match global demand next year amid the OPEC+ output hikes. This statement highlights a shift from previous estimations of a global oil deficit in 2026 and triggered sharp declines in Crude prices.

Gold price traded around $4,080 on Friday morning, remaining on the defensive below $4100 mark despite two daily gradual recoveries in a row during the week. Gold has gained around 55% this year and remains on track for its best annual performance since 1979, supported by inflows into exchange-traded funds and central bank purchases.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) added 1.2 tonnes of gold in September and reported a purchase for the 12th consecutive month in October. Gold appears to be on track for a small weekly decline after a mixed US jobs report dims expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 119,000 jobs in September, better than the market estimation of 50,000 – even after a downwardly revised 4,000 drop in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday, whose report was delayed due to the US government shutdown.